Causes of variation among rice models in yield response to CO2 examined with Free-Air CO2 Enrichment and growth chamber experiments
Identifieur interne : 001034 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 001033; suivant : 001035Causes of variation among rice models in yield response to CO2 examined with Free-Air CO2 Enrichment and growth chamber experiments
Auteurs : Toshihiro Hasegawa [Japon] ; Tao Li [Philippines] ; Xinyou Yin ; Yan Zhu ; Kenneth Boote [États-Unis] ; Jeffrey Baker [États-Unis] ; Simone Bregaglio [Italie] ; Samuel Buis [France] ; Roberto Confalonieri [Italie] ; Job Fugice [États-Unis] ; Tamon Fumoto [Japon] ; Donald Gaydon ; Soora Naresh Kumar [Inde] ; Tanguy Lafarge [France] ; Manuel Marcaida Iii [Philippines] ; Yuji Masutomi [Japon] ; Hiroshi Nakagawa [Japon] ; Philippe Oriol [France] ; Françoise Ruget [France] ; Upendra Singh [États-Unis] ; Liang Tang ; Fulu Tao [République populaire de Chine, Finlande] ; Hitomi Wakatsuki [Japon] ; Daniel Wallach [France] ; Yulong Wang ; Lloyd Ted Wilson [États-Unis] ; Lianxin Yang ; Yubin Yang [États-Unis] ; Hiroe Yoshida [Japon] ; Zhao Zhang [République populaire de Chine] ; Jianguo Zhu [République populaire de Chine]Source :
- Scientific Reports [ 2045-2322 ] ; 2017.
Abstract
The CO2 fertilization effect is a major source of uncertainty in crop models for future yield forecasts, but coordinated efforts to determine the mechanisms of this uncertainty have been lacking. Here, we studied causes of uncertainty among 16 crop models in predicting rice yield in response to elevated [CO2] (E-[CO2]) by comparison to free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE) and chamber experiments. The model ensemble reproduced the experimental results well. However, yield prediction in response to E-[CO2] varied significantly among the rice models. The variation was not random: models that overestimated at one experiment simulated greater yield enhancements at the others. The variation was not associated with model structure or magnitude of photosynthetic response to E-[CO2] but was significantly associated with the predictions of leaf area. This suggests that modelled secondary effects of E-[CO2] on morphological development, primarily leaf area, are the sources of model uncertainty. Rice morphological development is conservative to carbon acquisition. Uncertainty will be reduced by incorporating this conservative nature of the morphological response to E-[CO2] into the models. Nitrogen levels, particularly under limited situations, make the prediction more uncertain. Improving models to account for [CO2] × N interactions is necessary to better evaluate management practices under climate change.
Url:
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-017-13582-y
PubMed: 29093514
PubMed Central: 5666007
Affiliations:
- Finlande, France, Inde, Italie, Japon, Philippines, République populaire de Chine, États-Unis
- Alabama, Texas
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China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr" wicri:curation="lc">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Beijing</wicri:regionArea></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="Aff21"><institution-wrap><institution-id institution-id-type="GRID">grid.22642.30</institution-id><institution>Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke),</institution></institution-wrap>FI-00790 Helsinki, Finland</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Finlande</country><wicri:regionArea>FI-00790 Helsinki</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Wakatsuki, Hitomi" sort="Wakatsuki, Hitomi" uniqKey="Wakatsuki H" first="Hitomi" last="Wakatsuki">Hitomi Wakatsuki</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="Aff14"><institution-wrap><institution-id institution-id-type="ISNI">0000 0001 2222 0432</institution-id><institution-id institution-id-type="GRID">grid.416835.d</institution-id><institution>Institute for Agro-Environmental Sciences, National Agriculture and Food Research Organization, Tsukuba,</institution></institution-wrap>Ibaraki, 305-8604 Japan</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Japon</country><wicri:regionArea>Ibaraki</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Wallach, Daniel" sort="Wallach, Daniel" uniqKey="Wallach D" first="Daniel" last="Wallach">Daniel Wallach</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="Aff22">INRA, UMR AGIR, Castanet Tolosan, France</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>INRA, UMR AGIR, Castanet Tolosan</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Castanet Tolosan</wicri:noRegion><wicri:noRegion>Castanet Tolosan</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Wang, Yulong" sort="Wang, Yulong" uniqKey="Wang Y" first="Yulong" last="Wang">Yulong Wang</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="Aff23"><institution-wrap><institution-id institution-id-type="GRID">grid.268415.c</institution-id><institution>Yangzhou University, Hanjiang,</institution></institution-wrap>Yangzhou, Jiangsu 225009 China</nlm:aff><wicri:noCountry code="subfield">Jiangsu 225009 China</wicri:noCountry></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Wilson, Lloyd Ted" sort="Wilson, Lloyd Ted" uniqKey="Wilson L" first="Lloyd Ted" last="Wilson">Lloyd Ted Wilson</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="Aff24">Texas A&M AgriLife Research Center, Beaumont, Texas 77701 USA</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><placeName><region type="state">Texas</region></placeName><wicri:cityArea>Texas A&M AgriLife Research Center, Beaumont</wicri:cityArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Yang, Lianxin" sort="Yang, Lianxin" uniqKey="Yang L" first="Lianxin" last="Yang">Lianxin Yang</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="Aff23"><institution-wrap><institution-id institution-id-type="GRID">grid.268415.c</institution-id><institution>Yangzhou University, Hanjiang,</institution></institution-wrap>Yangzhou, Jiangsu 225009 China</nlm:aff><wicri:noCountry code="subfield">Jiangsu 225009 China</wicri:noCountry></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Yang, Yubin" sort="Yang, Yubin" uniqKey="Yang Y" first="Yubin" last="Yang">Yubin Yang</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="Aff24">Texas A&M AgriLife Research Center, Beaumont, Texas 77701 USA</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><placeName><region type="state">Texas</region></placeName><wicri:cityArea>Texas A&M AgriLife Research Center, Beaumont</wicri:cityArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Yoshida, Hiroe" sort="Yoshida, Hiroe" uniqKey="Yoshida H" first="Hiroe" last="Yoshida">Hiroe Yoshida</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="Aff14"><institution-wrap><institution-id institution-id-type="ISNI">0000 0001 2222 0432</institution-id><institution-id institution-id-type="GRID">grid.416835.d</institution-id><institution>Institute for Agro-Environmental Sciences, National Agriculture and Food Research Organization, Tsukuba,</institution></institution-wrap>Ibaraki, 305-8604 Japan</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Japon</country><wicri:regionArea>Ibaraki</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Zhang, Zhao" sort="Zhang, Zhao" uniqKey="Zhang Z" first="Zhao" last="Zhang">Zhao Zhang</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="Aff25"><institution-wrap><institution-id institution-id-type="ISNI">0000 0004 1789 9964</institution-id><institution-id institution-id-type="GRID">grid.20513.35</institution-id><institution>State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University,</institution></institution-wrap>Beijing, 100875 P.R. China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr" wicri:curation="lc">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Beijing</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Zhu, Jianguo" sort="Zhu, Jianguo" uniqKey="Zhu J" first="Jianguo" last="Zhu">Jianguo Zhu</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="Aff26"><institution-wrap><institution-id institution-id-type="ISNI">0000000119573309</institution-id><institution-id institution-id-type="GRID">grid.9227.e</institution-id><institution>State Key Laboratory of Soil and Sustainable Agriculture, Institute of Soil Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences,</institution></institution-wrap>Nanjing, 210008 China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Nanjing</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PMC</idno><idno type="pmid">29093514</idno><idno type="pmc">5666007</idno><idno type="url">http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5666007</idno><idno type="RBID">PMC:5666007</idno><idno type="doi">10.1038/s41598-017-13582-y</idno><date when="2017">2017</date><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Corpus">000E46</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PMC">000E46</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Curation">000D07</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Curation">000D07</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Checkpoint">000401</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Checkpoint">000401</idno><idno type="wicri:source">PubMed</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Corpus">000044</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="PubMed" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PubMed">000044</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Curation">000044</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="PubMed" wicri:step="Curation">000044</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Checkpoint">000044</idno><idno 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institution-id-type="GRID">grid.416835.d</institution-id><institution>Tohoku Agricultural Research Center, National Agriculture and Food Research Organization, Morioka,</institution></institution-wrap>Iwate, 020-0198 Japan</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Japon</country><wicri:regionArea>Iwate</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Li, Tao" sort="Li, Tao" uniqKey="Li T" first="Tao" last="Li">Tao Li</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="Aff2"><institution-wrap><institution-id institution-id-type="ISNI">0000 0001 0729 330X</institution-id><institution-id institution-id-type="GRID">grid.419387.0</institution-id><institution>International Rice Research Institute, DAPO Box,</institution></institution-wrap>7777 Metro Manila, Philippines</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Philippines</country><wicri:regionArea>7777 Metro Manila</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Yin, Xinyou" sort="Yin, Xinyou" uniqKey="Yin X" first="Xinyou" last="Yin">Xinyou Yin</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="Aff3"><institution-wrap><institution-id institution-id-type="ISNI">0000 0001 0791 5666</institution-id><institution-id institution-id-type="GRID">grid.4818.5</institution-id><institution>Centre for Crop Systems Analysis, Wageningen University & Research,</institution></institution-wrap>Wageningen, PO Box 430 The Netherlands</nlm:aff><wicri:noCountry code="subfield">PO Box 430 The Netherlands</wicri:noCountry></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Zhu, Yan" sort="Zhu, Yan" uniqKey="Zhu Y" first="Yan" last="Zhu">Yan Zhu</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="Aff4"><institution-wrap><institution-id institution-id-type="ISNI">0000 0000 9750 7019</institution-id><institution-id institution-id-type="GRID">grid.27871.3b</institution-id><institution>National Engineering and Technology Center for Information Agriculture, Nanjing Agricultural University,</institution></institution-wrap>Nanjing, Jiangsu 210095 China</nlm:aff><wicri:noCountry code="subfield">Jiangsu 210095 China</wicri:noCountry></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:aff id="Aff5"><institution-wrap><institution-id institution-id-type="ISNI">0000 0000 9750 7019</institution-id><institution-id institution-id-type="GRID">grid.27871.3b</institution-id><institution>Key Laboratory for Crop System Analysis and Decision Making, Ministry of Agriculture,</institution><institution>Nanjing Agricultural University,</institution></institution-wrap>Nanjing, Jiangsu 210095 China</nlm:aff><wicri:noCountry code="subfield">Jiangsu 210095 China</wicri:noCountry></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:aff id="Aff6"><institution-wrap><institution-id institution-id-type="ISNI">0000 0000 9750 7019</institution-id><institution-id institution-id-type="GRID">grid.27871.3b</institution-id><institution>Jiangsu Key Laboratory for Information Agriculture,</institution><institution>Nanjing Agricultural University,</institution></institution-wrap>Nanjing, Jiangsu 210095 China</nlm:aff><wicri:noCountry code="subfield">Jiangsu 210095 China</wicri:noCountry></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:aff id="Aff7"><institution-wrap><institution-id institution-id-type="ISNI">0000 0000 9750 7019</institution-id><institution-id institution-id-type="GRID">grid.27871.3b</institution-id><institution>Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Modern Crop Production,</institution><institution>Nanjing Agricultural University,</institution></institution-wrap>Nanjing, Jiangsu 210095 China</nlm:aff><wicri:noCountry code="subfield">Jiangsu 210095 China</wicri:noCountry></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Boote, Kenneth" sort="Boote, Kenneth" uniqKey="Boote K" first="Kenneth" last="Boote">Kenneth Boote</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="Aff8"><institution-wrap><institution-id institution-id-type="ISNI">0000 0004 1936 8091</institution-id><institution-id institution-id-type="GRID">grid.15276.37</institution-id><institution>University of Florida, Gainesville,</institution></institution-wrap>Florida, 32611-0500 USA</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Florida</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Baker, Jeffrey" sort="Baker, Jeffrey" uniqKey="Baker J" first="Jeffrey" last="Baker">Jeffrey Baker</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="Aff9">United States Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Research Service, Big Spring, Texas 79720 USA</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><placeName><region type="state">Texas</region></placeName><wicri:cityArea>United States Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Research Service, Big Spring</wicri:cityArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Bregaglio, Simone" sort="Bregaglio, Simone" uniqKey="Bregaglio S" first="Simone" last="Bregaglio">Simone Bregaglio</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="Aff10">CREA, Research Center for Agriculture and Environment, Bologna, 40128 Italy</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Italie</country><wicri:regionArea>CREA, Research Center for Agriculture and Environment, Bologna</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Bologna</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Buis, Samuel" sort="Buis, Samuel" uniqKey="Buis S" first="Samuel" last="Buis">Samuel Buis</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="Aff11"><institution-wrap><institution-id institution-id-type="ISNI">0000 0001 2169 1988</institution-id><institution-id institution-id-type="GRID">grid.414548.8</institution-id><institution>INRA, UMR1114 EMMAH,</institution></institution-wrap>F-84914 Avignon, France</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>F-84914 Avignon</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Confalonieri, Roberto" sort="Confalonieri, Roberto" uniqKey="Confalonieri R" first="Roberto" last="Confalonieri">Roberto Confalonieri</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="Aff12"><institution-wrap><institution-id institution-id-type="ISNI">0000 0004 1757 2822</institution-id><institution-id institution-id-type="GRID">grid.4708.b</institution-id><institution>University of Milan, Cassandra lab,</institution></institution-wrap>Milan, 20133 Italy</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Italie</country><wicri:regionArea>Milan</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Fugice, Job" sort="Fugice, Job" uniqKey="Fugice J" first="Job" last="Fugice">Job Fugice</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="Aff13">International Fertilizer Development Center, Muscle Shoals, Alabama 35662 USA</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><placeName><region type="state">Alabama</region></placeName><wicri:cityArea>International Fertilizer Development Center, Muscle Shoals</wicri:cityArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Fumoto, Tamon" sort="Fumoto, Tamon" uniqKey="Fumoto T" first="Tamon" last="Fumoto">Tamon Fumoto</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="Aff14"><institution-wrap><institution-id institution-id-type="ISNI">0000 0001 2222 0432</institution-id><institution-id institution-id-type="GRID">grid.416835.d</institution-id><institution>Institute for Agro-Environmental Sciences, National Agriculture and Food Research Organization, Tsukuba,</institution></institution-wrap>Ibaraki, 305-8604 Japan</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Japon</country><wicri:regionArea>Ibaraki</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Gaydon, Donald" sort="Gaydon, Donald" uniqKey="Gaydon D" first="Donald" last="Gaydon">Donald Gaydon</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="Aff15">CSIRO Agriculture and Food, St Lucia, QLD 4067 Australia</nlm:aff><wicri:noCountry code="subfield">QLD 4067 Australia</wicri:noCountry></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Kumar, Soora Naresh" sort="Kumar, Soora Naresh" uniqKey="Kumar S" first="Soora Naresh" last="Kumar">Soora Naresh Kumar</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="Aff16"><institution-wrap><institution-id institution-id-type="ISNI">0000 0001 2172 0814</institution-id><institution-id institution-id-type="GRID">grid.418196.3</institution-id><institution>Indian Agricultural Research Institute,</institution></institution-wrap>New Delhi, 110012 India</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Inde</country><wicri:regionArea>New Delhi</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Lafarge, Tanguy" sort="Lafarge, Tanguy" uniqKey="Lafarge T" first="Tanguy" last="Lafarge">Tanguy Lafarge</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="Aff17"><institution-wrap><institution-id institution-id-type="ISNI">0000 0001 2153 9871</institution-id><institution-id institution-id-type="GRID">grid.8183.2</institution-id><institution>Cirad, UMR AGAP,</institution></institution-wrap>F-34398 Montpellier, France</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>F-34398 Montpellier</wicri:regionArea></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="Aff18"><institution-wrap><institution-id institution-id-type="ISNI">0000 0001 2097 0141</institution-id><institution-id institution-id-type="GRID">grid.121334.6</institution-id><institution>AGAP, Univ Montpellier, CIRAD, INRA, INRIA, Montpellier SupAgro,</institution></institution-wrap>Montpellier, France</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>Montpellier</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Marcaida Iii, Manuel" sort="Marcaida Iii, Manuel" uniqKey="Marcaida Iii M" first="Manuel" last="Marcaida Iii">Manuel Marcaida Iii</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="Aff2"><institution-wrap><institution-id institution-id-type="ISNI">0000 0001 0729 330X</institution-id><institution-id institution-id-type="GRID">grid.419387.0</institution-id><institution>International Rice Research Institute, DAPO Box,</institution></institution-wrap>7777 Metro Manila, Philippines</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Philippines</country><wicri:regionArea>7777 Metro Manila</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Masutomi, Yuji" sort="Masutomi, Yuji" uniqKey="Masutomi Y" first="Yuji" last="Masutomi">Yuji Masutomi</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="Aff19"><institution-wrap><institution-id institution-id-type="GRID">grid.410773.6</institution-id><institution>Ibaraki University, College of Agriculture, Inashiki,</institution></institution-wrap>Ibaraki, 300-0393 Japan</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Japon</country><wicri:regionArea>Ibaraki</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Nakagawa, Hiroshi" sort="Nakagawa, Hiroshi" uniqKey="Nakagawa H" first="Hiroshi" last="Nakagawa">Hiroshi Nakagawa</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="Aff19"><institution-wrap><institution-id institution-id-type="GRID">grid.410773.6</institution-id><institution>Ibaraki University, College of Agriculture, Inashiki,</institution></institution-wrap>Ibaraki, 300-0393 Japan</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Japon</country><wicri:regionArea>Ibaraki</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Oriol, Philippe" sort="Oriol, Philippe" uniqKey="Oriol P" first="Philippe" last="Oriol">Philippe Oriol</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="Aff17"><institution-wrap><institution-id institution-id-type="ISNI">0000 0001 2153 9871</institution-id><institution-id institution-id-type="GRID">grid.8183.2</institution-id><institution>Cirad, UMR AGAP,</institution></institution-wrap>F-34398 Montpellier, France</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>F-34398 Montpellier</wicri:regionArea></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="Aff18"><institution-wrap><institution-id institution-id-type="ISNI">0000 0001 2097 0141</institution-id><institution-id institution-id-type="GRID">grid.121334.6</institution-id><institution>AGAP, Univ Montpellier, CIRAD, INRA, INRIA, Montpellier SupAgro,</institution></institution-wrap>Montpellier, France</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>Montpellier</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Ruget, Francoise" sort="Ruget, Francoise" uniqKey="Ruget F" first="Françoise" last="Ruget">Françoise Ruget</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="Aff11"><institution-wrap><institution-id institution-id-type="ISNI">0000 0001 2169 1988</institution-id><institution-id institution-id-type="GRID">grid.414548.8</institution-id><institution>INRA, UMR1114 EMMAH,</institution></institution-wrap>F-84914 Avignon, France</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>F-84914 Avignon</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Singh, Upendra" sort="Singh, Upendra" uniqKey="Singh U" first="Upendra" last="Singh">Upendra Singh</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="Aff13">International Fertilizer Development Center, Muscle Shoals, Alabama 35662 USA</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><placeName><region type="state">Alabama</region></placeName><wicri:cityArea>International Fertilizer Development Center, Muscle Shoals</wicri:cityArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Tang, Liang" sort="Tang, Liang" uniqKey="Tang L" first="Liang" last="Tang">Liang Tang</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="Aff4"><institution-wrap><institution-id institution-id-type="ISNI">0000 0000 9750 7019</institution-id><institution-id institution-id-type="GRID">grid.27871.3b</institution-id><institution>National Engineering and Technology Center for Information Agriculture, Nanjing Agricultural University,</institution></institution-wrap>Nanjing, Jiangsu 210095 China</nlm:aff><wicri:noCountry code="subfield">Jiangsu 210095 China</wicri:noCountry></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:aff id="Aff5"><institution-wrap><institution-id institution-id-type="ISNI">0000 0000 9750 7019</institution-id><institution-id institution-id-type="GRID">grid.27871.3b</institution-id><institution>Key Laboratory for Crop System Analysis and Decision Making, Ministry of Agriculture,</institution><institution>Nanjing Agricultural University,</institution></institution-wrap>Nanjing, Jiangsu 210095 China</nlm:aff><wicri:noCountry code="subfield">Jiangsu 210095 China</wicri:noCountry></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:aff id="Aff6"><institution-wrap><institution-id institution-id-type="ISNI">0000 0000 9750 7019</institution-id><institution-id institution-id-type="GRID">grid.27871.3b</institution-id><institution>Jiangsu Key Laboratory for Information Agriculture,</institution><institution>Nanjing Agricultural University,</institution></institution-wrap>Nanjing, Jiangsu 210095 China</nlm:aff><wicri:noCountry code="subfield">Jiangsu 210095 China</wicri:noCountry></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:aff id="Aff7"><institution-wrap><institution-id institution-id-type="ISNI">0000 0000 9750 7019</institution-id><institution-id institution-id-type="GRID">grid.27871.3b</institution-id><institution>Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Modern Crop Production,</institution><institution>Nanjing Agricultural University,</institution></institution-wrap>Nanjing, Jiangsu 210095 China</nlm:aff><wicri:noCountry code="subfield">Jiangsu 210095 China</wicri:noCountry></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Tao, Fulu" sort="Tao, Fulu" uniqKey="Tao F" first="Fulu" last="Tao">Fulu Tao</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="Aff20"><institution-wrap><institution-id institution-id-type="ISNI">0000000119573309</institution-id><institution-id institution-id-type="GRID">grid.9227.e</institution-id><institution>Chinese Academy of Sciences, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research,</institution></institution-wrap>Beijing, 100101 P.R. China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr" wicri:curation="lc">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Beijing</wicri:regionArea></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="Aff21"><institution-wrap><institution-id institution-id-type="GRID">grid.22642.30</institution-id><institution>Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke),</institution></institution-wrap>FI-00790 Helsinki, Finland</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Finlande</country><wicri:regionArea>FI-00790 Helsinki</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Wakatsuki, Hitomi" sort="Wakatsuki, Hitomi" uniqKey="Wakatsuki H" first="Hitomi" last="Wakatsuki">Hitomi Wakatsuki</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="Aff14"><institution-wrap><institution-id institution-id-type="ISNI">0000 0001 2222 0432</institution-id><institution-id institution-id-type="GRID">grid.416835.d</institution-id><institution>Institute for Agro-Environmental Sciences, National Agriculture and Food Research Organization, Tsukuba,</institution></institution-wrap>Ibaraki, 305-8604 Japan</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Japon</country><wicri:regionArea>Ibaraki</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Wallach, Daniel" sort="Wallach, Daniel" uniqKey="Wallach D" first="Daniel" last="Wallach">Daniel Wallach</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="Aff22">INRA, UMR AGIR, Castanet Tolosan, France</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>INRA, UMR AGIR, Castanet Tolosan</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Castanet Tolosan</wicri:noRegion><wicri:noRegion>Castanet Tolosan</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Wang, Yulong" sort="Wang, Yulong" uniqKey="Wang Y" first="Yulong" last="Wang">Yulong Wang</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="Aff23"><institution-wrap><institution-id institution-id-type="GRID">grid.268415.c</institution-id><institution>Yangzhou University, Hanjiang,</institution></institution-wrap>Yangzhou, Jiangsu 225009 China</nlm:aff><wicri:noCountry code="subfield">Jiangsu 225009 China</wicri:noCountry></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Wilson, Lloyd Ted" sort="Wilson, Lloyd Ted" uniqKey="Wilson L" first="Lloyd Ted" last="Wilson">Lloyd Ted Wilson</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="Aff24">Texas A&M AgriLife Research Center, Beaumont, Texas 77701 USA</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><placeName><region type="state">Texas</region></placeName><wicri:cityArea>Texas A&M AgriLife Research Center, Beaumont</wicri:cityArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Yang, Lianxin" sort="Yang, Lianxin" uniqKey="Yang L" first="Lianxin" last="Yang">Lianxin Yang</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="Aff23"><institution-wrap><institution-id institution-id-type="GRID">grid.268415.c</institution-id><institution>Yangzhou University, Hanjiang,</institution></institution-wrap>Yangzhou, Jiangsu 225009 China</nlm:aff><wicri:noCountry code="subfield">Jiangsu 225009 China</wicri:noCountry></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Yang, Yubin" sort="Yang, Yubin" uniqKey="Yang Y" first="Yubin" last="Yang">Yubin Yang</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="Aff24">Texas A&M AgriLife Research Center, Beaumont, Texas 77701 USA</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><placeName><region type="state">Texas</region></placeName><wicri:cityArea>Texas A&M AgriLife Research Center, Beaumont</wicri:cityArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Yoshida, Hiroe" sort="Yoshida, Hiroe" uniqKey="Yoshida H" first="Hiroe" last="Yoshida">Hiroe Yoshida</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="Aff14"><institution-wrap><institution-id institution-id-type="ISNI">0000 0001 2222 0432</institution-id><institution-id institution-id-type="GRID">grid.416835.d</institution-id><institution>Institute for Agro-Environmental Sciences, National Agriculture and Food Research Organization, Tsukuba,</institution></institution-wrap>Ibaraki, 305-8604 Japan</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Japon</country><wicri:regionArea>Ibaraki</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Zhang, Zhao" sort="Zhang, Zhao" uniqKey="Zhang Z" first="Zhao" last="Zhang">Zhao Zhang</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="Aff25"><institution-wrap><institution-id institution-id-type="ISNI">0000 0004 1789 9964</institution-id><institution-id institution-id-type="GRID">grid.20513.35</institution-id><institution>State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University,</institution></institution-wrap>Beijing, 100875 P.R. China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr" wicri:curation="lc">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Beijing</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Zhu, Jianguo" sort="Zhu, Jianguo" uniqKey="Zhu J" first="Jianguo" last="Zhu">Jianguo Zhu</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="Aff26"><institution-wrap><institution-id institution-id-type="ISNI">0000000119573309</institution-id><institution-id institution-id-type="GRID">grid.9227.e</institution-id><institution>State Key Laboratory of Soil and Sustainable Agriculture, Institute of Soil Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences,</institution></institution-wrap>Nanjing, 210008 China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Nanjing</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Scientific Reports</title><idno type="eISSN">2045-2322</idno><imprint><date when="2017">2017</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p id="Par1">The CO<sub>2</sub> fertilization effect is a major source of uncertainty in crop models for future yield forecasts, but coordinated efforts to determine the mechanisms of this uncertainty have been lacking. Here, we studied causes of uncertainty among 16 crop models in predicting rice yield in response to elevated [CO<sub>2</sub>] (E-[CO<sub>2</sub>]) by comparison to free-air CO<sub>2</sub> enrichment (FACE) and chamber experiments. The model ensemble reproduced the experimental results well. However, yield prediction in response to E-[CO<sub>2</sub>] varied significantly among the rice models. The variation was not random: models that overestimated at one experiment simulated greater yield enhancements at the others. The variation was not associated with model structure or magnitude of photosynthetic response to E-[CO<sub>2</sub>] but was significantly associated with the predictions of leaf area. This suggests that modelled secondary effects of E-[CO<sub>2</sub>] on morphological development, primarily leaf area, are the sources of model uncertainty. Rice morphological development is conservative to carbon acquisition. Uncertainty will be reduced by incorporating this conservative nature of the morphological response to E-[CO<sub>2</sub>] into the models. Nitrogen levels, particularly under limited situations, make the prediction more uncertain. Improving models to account for [CO<sub>2</sub>] × N interactions is necessary to better evaluate management practices under climate change.</p></div></front><back><div1 type="bibliography"><listBibl><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Hatfield, Jl" uniqKey="Hatfield J">JL Hatfield</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Wassmann, R" uniqKey="Wassmann R">R Wassmann</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Meinshausen, M" uniqKey="Meinshausen M">M Meinshausen</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Parry, Ml" uniqKey="Parry M">ML Parry</name></author><author><name sortKey="Rosenzweig, C" uniqKey="Rosenzweig C">C Rosenzweig</name></author><author><name sortKey="Iglesias, A" uniqKey="Iglesias A">A Iglesias</name></author><author><name sortKey="Livermore, M" uniqKey="Livermore M">M Livermore</name></author><author><name sortKey="Fischer, G" 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B">BAM Bouman</name></author><author><name sortKey="Van Laar, Hh" uniqKey="Van Laar H">HH van Laar</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Gaydon, Ds" uniqKey="Gaydon D">DS Gaydon</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Fumoto, T" uniqKey="Fumoto T">T Fumoto</name></author><author><name sortKey="Kobayashi, K" uniqKey="Kobayashi K">K Kobayashi</name></author><author><name sortKey="Li, C" uniqKey="Li C">C Li</name></author><author><name sortKey="Yagi, K" uniqKey="Yagi K">K Yagi</name></author><author><name sortKey="Hasegawa, T" uniqKey="Hasegawa T">T Hasegawa</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Yoshida, R" uniqKey="Yoshida R">R Yoshida</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Yoshida, H" uniqKey="Yoshida H">H Yoshida</name></author><author><name sortKey="Horie, T" uniqKey="Horie T">T Horie</name></author><author><name sortKey="Katsura, K" uniqKey="Katsura K">K Katsura</name></author><author><name sortKey="Shiraiwa, T" uniqKey="Shiraiwa T">T Shiraiwa</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Yoshida, H" uniqKey="Yoshida H">H Yoshida</name></author><author><name sortKey="Horie, T" uniqKey="Horie T">T Horie</name></author><author><name sortKey="Shiraiwa, T" uniqKey="Shiraiwa T">T Shiraiwa</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Yoshida, H" uniqKey="Yoshida H">H Yoshida</name></author><author><name sortKey="Horie, T" uniqKey="Horie T">T Horie</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Yoshida, H" uniqKey="Yoshida H">H Yoshida</name></author><author><name sortKey="Horie, T" uniqKey="Horie T">T Horie</name></author><author><name sortKey="Nakazono, K" uniqKey="Nakazono K">K Nakazono</name></author><author><name 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Miyata</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Masutomi, Y" uniqKey="Masutomi Y">Y Masutomi</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Takata, K" uniqKey="Takata K">K Takata</name></author><author><name sortKey="Emori, S" uniqKey="Emori S">S Emori</name></author><author><name sortKey="Watanabe, T" uniqKey="Watanabe T">T Watanabe</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Tao, F" uniqKey="Tao F">F Tao</name></author><author><name sortKey="Zhang, Z" uniqKey="Zhang Z">Z Zhang</name></author><author><name sortKey="Liu, J" uniqKey="Liu J">J Liu</name></author><author><name sortKey="Yokozawa, M" uniqKey="Yokozawa M">M Yokozawa</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Tang, L" uniqKey="Tang L">L Tang</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Wu, Gw" uniqKey="Wu G">GW Wu</name></author><author><name sortKey="Wilson, Lt" uniqKey="Wilson L">LT Wilson</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Horie, T" uniqKey="Horie T">T Horie</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Brisson, N" uniqKey="Brisson N">N Brisson</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Brisson, N" uniqKey="Brisson N">N Brisson</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Confalonieri, R" uniqKey="Confalonieri R">R Confalonieri</name></author><author><name sortKey="Rosenmund, As" uniqKey="Rosenmund A">AS Rosenmund</name></author><author><name sortKey="Baruth, B" uniqKey="Baruth B">B Baruth</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Stockle, Co" uniqKey="Stockle C">CO Stockle</name></author><author><name sortKey="Dyke, Pt" uniqKey="Dyke P">PT Dyke</name></author><author><name sortKey="Williams, Jr" uniqKey="Williams J">JR Williams</name></author><author><name sortKey="Jones, Ca" uniqKey="Jones C">CA Jones</name></author><author><name sortKey="Rosenberg, Nj" uniqKey="Rosenberg N">NJ Rosenberg</name></author></analytic></biblStruct></listBibl></div1></back></TEI><affiliations><list><country><li>Finlande</li><li>France</li><li>Inde</li><li>Italie</li><li>Japon</li><li>Philippines</li><li>République populaire de Chine</li><li>États-Unis</li></country><region><li>Alabama</li><li>Texas</li></region></list><tree><noCountry><name sortKey="Gaydon, Donald" sort="Gaydon, Donald" uniqKey="Gaydon D" first="Donald" last="Gaydon">Donald Gaydon</name><name sortKey="Tang, Liang" sort="Tang, Liang" uniqKey="Tang L" first="Liang" last="Tang">Liang Tang</name><name sortKey="Wang, Yulong" sort="Wang, Yulong" uniqKey="Wang Y" first="Yulong" last="Wang">Yulong Wang</name><name sortKey="Yang, Lianxin" sort="Yang, Lianxin" uniqKey="Yang L" first="Lianxin" last="Yang">Lianxin Yang</name><name sortKey="Yin, Xinyou" sort="Yin, Xinyou" uniqKey="Yin X" first="Xinyou" last="Yin">Xinyou Yin</name><name sortKey="Zhu, Yan" sort="Zhu, Yan" uniqKey="Zhu Y" first="Yan" last="Zhu">Yan Zhu</name></noCountry><country name="Japon"><noRegion><name sortKey="Hasegawa, Toshihiro" sort="Hasegawa, Toshihiro" uniqKey="Hasegawa T" first="Toshihiro" last="Hasegawa">Toshihiro Hasegawa</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Fumoto, Tamon" sort="Fumoto, Tamon" uniqKey="Fumoto T" first="Tamon" last="Fumoto">Tamon Fumoto</name><name sortKey="Masutomi, Yuji" sort="Masutomi, Yuji" uniqKey="Masutomi Y" first="Yuji" last="Masutomi">Yuji Masutomi</name><name sortKey="Nakagawa, Hiroshi" sort="Nakagawa, Hiroshi" uniqKey="Nakagawa H" first="Hiroshi" last="Nakagawa">Hiroshi Nakagawa</name><name sortKey="Wakatsuki, Hitomi" sort="Wakatsuki, Hitomi" uniqKey="Wakatsuki H" first="Hitomi" last="Wakatsuki">Hitomi Wakatsuki</name><name sortKey="Yoshida, Hiroe" sort="Yoshida, Hiroe" uniqKey="Yoshida H" first="Hiroe" last="Yoshida">Hiroe Yoshida</name></country><country name="Philippines"><noRegion><name sortKey="Li, Tao" sort="Li, Tao" uniqKey="Li T" first="Tao" last="Li">Tao Li</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Marcaida Iii, Manuel" sort="Marcaida Iii, Manuel" uniqKey="Marcaida Iii M" first="Manuel" last="Marcaida Iii">Manuel Marcaida Iii</name></country><country name="États-Unis"><noRegion><name sortKey="Boote, Kenneth" sort="Boote, Kenneth" uniqKey="Boote K" first="Kenneth" last="Boote">Kenneth Boote</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Baker, Jeffrey" sort="Baker, Jeffrey" uniqKey="Baker J" first="Jeffrey" last="Baker">Jeffrey Baker</name><name sortKey="Fugice, Job" sort="Fugice, Job" uniqKey="Fugice J" first="Job" last="Fugice">Job Fugice</name><name sortKey="Singh, Upendra" sort="Singh, Upendra" uniqKey="Singh U" first="Upendra" last="Singh">Upendra Singh</name><name sortKey="Wilson, Lloyd Ted" sort="Wilson, Lloyd Ted" uniqKey="Wilson L" first="Lloyd Ted" last="Wilson">Lloyd Ted Wilson</name><name sortKey="Yang, Yubin" sort="Yang, Yubin" uniqKey="Yang Y" first="Yubin" last="Yang">Yubin Yang</name></country><country name="Italie"><noRegion><name sortKey="Bregaglio, Simone" sort="Bregaglio, Simone" uniqKey="Bregaglio S" first="Simone" last="Bregaglio">Simone Bregaglio</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Confalonieri, Roberto" sort="Confalonieri, Roberto" uniqKey="Confalonieri R" first="Roberto" last="Confalonieri">Roberto Confalonieri</name></country><country name="France"><noRegion><name sortKey="Buis, Samuel" sort="Buis, Samuel" uniqKey="Buis S" first="Samuel" last="Buis">Samuel Buis</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Lafarge, Tanguy" sort="Lafarge, Tanguy" uniqKey="Lafarge T" first="Tanguy" last="Lafarge">Tanguy Lafarge</name><name sortKey="Lafarge, Tanguy" sort="Lafarge, Tanguy" uniqKey="Lafarge T" first="Tanguy" last="Lafarge">Tanguy Lafarge</name><name sortKey="Oriol, Philippe" sort="Oriol, Philippe" uniqKey="Oriol P" first="Philippe" last="Oriol">Philippe Oriol</name><name sortKey="Oriol, Philippe" sort="Oriol, Philippe" uniqKey="Oriol P" first="Philippe" last="Oriol">Philippe Oriol</name><name sortKey="Ruget, Francoise" sort="Ruget, Francoise" uniqKey="Ruget F" first="Françoise" last="Ruget">Françoise Ruget</name><name sortKey="Wallach, Daniel" sort="Wallach, Daniel" uniqKey="Wallach D" first="Daniel" last="Wallach">Daniel Wallach</name></country><country name="Inde"><noRegion><name sortKey="Kumar, Soora Naresh" sort="Kumar, Soora Naresh" uniqKey="Kumar S" first="Soora Naresh" last="Kumar">Soora Naresh Kumar</name></noRegion></country><country name="République populaire de Chine"><noRegion><name sortKey="Tao, Fulu" sort="Tao, Fulu" uniqKey="Tao F" first="Fulu" last="Tao">Fulu Tao</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Zhang, Zhao" sort="Zhang, Zhao" uniqKey="Zhang Z" first="Zhao" last="Zhang">Zhao Zhang</name><name sortKey="Zhu, Jianguo" sort="Zhu, Jianguo" uniqKey="Zhu J" first="Jianguo" last="Zhu">Jianguo Zhu</name></country><country name="Finlande"><noRegion><name sortKey="Tao, Fulu" sort="Tao, Fulu" uniqKey="Tao F" first="Fulu" last="Tao">Fulu Tao</name></noRegion></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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